In this report we provide the updated charts as well as summarize the setups that we discussed on the recent zoom webinar.

The stocks in focus are: Voyager Digital, Bitcoin, Star Peak Energy, Magnite, XPeng, Chainlink, Fubo, Nvidia

You can watch the replay of this webinar here:

Voyager Digital (VYGVF)

Summary

• Voyager is clearly in a 3rd wave uptrend. Note the volume rush as well as the MACD at its peak. These, along with a strong price uptrend, are common signals we see in 3rd waves.
• Right now, we are in the most probable topping zone for the 3rd wave. Price has fallen short of the $17.40 resistance, followed by a strong down day today.
• However, note the daily candle pattern. It is a clear hammer pattern, suggesting that buyers quickly bought up the supply. This is typically a bullish signal. So, I would not be shocked to this 3rd wave extend further.
• If VYGVF pushes above $17.40, the next level to monitor is around $23.30.
• Assuming the 3rd wave is in, we will likely be buyers around the shallow target for the 4th wave, which is around $7.3.
• If VYGVF pushes to new heights, these 4th wave targets will also increase. As of now, we will wait for the 4th wave correction before adding to our position.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Summary

• Bitcoin is clearly in its large degree 3rd wave (in blue). That 3rd wave consists of its own internal 5 wave pattern (in pink).
• The last update we identified Bitcoin to have topped in its pink 3rd wave. We identified the shallow and deep targets for the 4th wave pullback as well, which are still on the above chart.
• Bitcoin tagged the shallow target around $28,800 and has since broken out to new highs, suggesting the 4th wave might be over.
• However, there is a chance that this is not the case. There are corrections known as irregular corrections, where the 2nd leg (B wave), breaks above the top of the 1st leg down (A wave). As long as Bitcoin stays below the $48,650 region, this potential is still on the table. Above this level, and the probability is high that we are in the 5th wave.
• Regardless, we are expecting the 5th wave to extend. The price of Bitcoin has given us no reason to believe that the count we are tracking is not still active.

Star Peak Energy (STPK)

Summary

• STPK appears to be tracing a leading diagonal pattern. This is a common trend we see with high growth names (ROKU, BAND, NVIDIA). This pattern is a series of 5 waves that overlap, and move within a trend channel (in gray).
• If correct, we should see the 3rd wave approach the $58 region soon.
• Using basic technical analysis, just below the $37 breakout region in green, you can see an inverse head and shoulder pattern. With these patterns, you want to see the right shoulder smaller than the left, and the volume used to build the right shoulder should be very thin.
• This pattern has been confirmed with the breakout above $37.
• We will look to add above $42.80, or a further retest of the $37 breakout zone.
• A break back below $37 and we will update our targets.

Magnite (MGNI)

Summary

• Magnite appears to be in a leading diagonal pattern as well. There is simply no other way to count the 1st wave up. The 3rd wave also supports this pattern.
• If this is the case, I would be looking for the 3rd wave to peak around the $60, $82, $106 region, which also coincides with the upper region of the trend channel.
• We will wait for the 4th wave correction before looking to add to this position.
• The RSI trend in blue will be a tell that we are in this 4th wave, at which time we will update target levels.

XPeng (XPEV)

Summary

• So far, we are following the plan that we outlined in our last market update on XPEV. Either the 2nd wave has bottomed, and we are in the early stages of the 3rd wave to new highs (green count), or we will break below $40.50, signaling the likelihood of a lower low before the 2nd wave is over (red count).
• We have layered in our second tranche around $47, assuming the green count is active. If we breakout above $54.50, the probability will increase that we are in the green count. A break to all new highs will confirm this count, which we plan to be fully allocated before.
• On the other hand, if we do break to new lows, we will add our 3rd tranche in the most likely targets for this final move down in the 2nd wave.
• No one knows what direction XPEV will take in the short to intermediate term, which is why we are adding in accordance to the two most likely paths. However, both paths suggest a 3rd wave breakout over a more intermediate to long term time frame.

Chainlink (LINK)

Summary

• LINK is setting up for a classic breakout above the $25.50 – $27.50 resistance.
• The MACD is also in a coiling pattern, which is characteristic of a strong breakout.
• If we do get a noted breakout, it will be further confirmation that the count we are tracking is still in play.

Fubo (FUBO)

Summary

• It is not clear whether Fubo has completed the first wave in a new uptrend (3rd wave), or if it just completed the B wave in a correction that targets lower lows.
• If we are on the more bullish path, I would look for a bottom in this minor correction around $40, $36, $33. As long as we hold $28, this path is active, and suggests higher highs sooner. If we get any buy signals at any of these levels, we may add to our position.
• If we do break $28, it will confirm that we may have one more lower level before this 2nd wave correction is complete.
• Regardless, a break above $62 will confirm that we are in the heart of the 3rd wave, at which point we plan to be fully allocated.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Summary

• Nvidia is testing the upper resistance that has kept the price bottled up for several months. A break above the $596 region will confirm that the consolidation is likely over, at which point we will add to our position.
• The Accumulation/Distribution signal is not supporting a breakout. However, the MACD is. Thus, the internals are mixed, so we will follow price. It’s important to keep our long-term time frame in mind when buying a breakout to new highs. We still believe Nvidia can become one of the most valuable companies in the world.

Last week, David reviewed SPACs on a Zoom webinar for premium members.

You can watch the webinar here:You can watch the webinar here:

As we balance risk and reward on our premium service, we felt it was necessary to acknowledge that SPACs can offer retailers a better entry at a lower price than what IPOs offer.

SPACs offer retail investors the ability to invest early in a company. In the case of Snowflake, a company that went public via a traditional IPO, retail investors did not have this opportunity. By the time Snowflake debuted on the public markets, the share price had soared over 200% from its indicated opening price.

Why would a company want to go public via a SPAC?  The main thing is fast cash and the ability to bypass the regulatory hurdles of a traditional IPO.  SPACs allow companies to get to the public markets quicker.  A lot of SPACs we are currently seeing are companies that are still pre-revenue, or have very little revenue, and mostly unprofitable.  SPACs are ideal for companies that want to get to the public markets as quick as they can and not have to deal with a long, drawn out traditional IPO process.

This happens to be one of the main risks as these are mostly newer, unprofitable companies with not a lot of revenue.  SPACs had a bad reputation in the past because the industry was not as regulated and there was a lot more fraud.  The, SEC, however has cracked down on it and the regulation on SPACs has certainly ramped up.

With SPACs, there are plenty of companies that will not make for good long term, or even short-term, investments. However, there are also a number of gems that are going public via SPACs. Below are a few of my favorite SPACs currently.

What are SPACs?

SPACs are special purpose acquisition companies, sometimes called blank check companies, formed to raise capital for the purpose of acquiring an existing company and bringing them public.  They are traditionally formed by investors with expertise in a certain industry, who are looking to pursue deals in that industry. 

SPACs usually begin trading on the public markets at $10/share, which is typically the net asset value.  This is not always the case and there are exceptions, including Bill Ackman’s SPAC, PSTH, which began trading at $20.  However, you will typically see the blank check company start trading at a NAV of $10. 

The SPAC company then enters a timeline where they look to make a deal.  Once that deal is done and approved, the SPAC combines with the business they are merging with and starts trading publicly under a new ticker.

Proterra (ACTC)

Proterra designs and manufactures electric transit buses and electric charging systems.  They are North America’s #1 electric transit bus original equipment manufacturer.  They also develop leading electric powertrains for other commercial vehicle OEMs and develop fleet level chargers for commercial vehicles.

Proterra management estimates its total addressable market to total $260B.  They have the first mover advantage in the electric transit bus market with over 16M total miles traveled.  Proterra has also inked partnerships with BMW, Daimler, Con Edison, and most recently Komatsu to develop all electric construction equipment.

There is a lot of opportunity in this industry as world shifts to EVs.  The company expects to generate $153M in revenue for the FY’20, a number they are projecting to multiply 16x by 2025 to approximately $2.5B. 

Jennifer Granholm, Joe Biden’s secretary of energy nominee, has over $1M in Proterra stock options and currently sits on the company’s board. At the current valuation of around $5B, Proterra may end up being a bargain in an industry that is poised to see tremendous growth over the next decade.   

Stem Energy (STPK)

Stem Energy is an AI-driven energy storage solutions business.  This is another market poised for tremendous growth over the next few decades, with a projected $1.2T in new revenue opportunities for integrated storage that are expected to be deployed by 2050.  Battery storage capacity is expected to increase 25x by 2030.

Stem focuses its technology on battery optimization and energy storage.  The company already has over 900 systems operating on their Athena software.  They have 75% market share in California’s behind-the-meter storage market, which the largest market in the US. 

There are a number of global catalysts in the energy storage industry.  A few examples include the Paris Accord, Japan’s Net 0 emissions pledge, and California’s mandate for 0 non-EV passenger vehicle sales by 2035 

Stem competes in the same market with Enphase, another stock that we like, as well as SolarEdge and SunRun.  There is a lot of opportunity for multiple winners to emerge in this space.  Stem Energy is positioning themselves to be one of those winners with some of the partnerships they have inked including Apple, Amazon, and Walmart.

One of the main risks for Stem Energy is a high degree of execution risk as the business is still so new.  They currently only have $33M in revenue.  That number is expected to multiply 28x by 2025, which would put them around $1B in revenue in 5 years.  The company also expects to reach profitability in 2022. 

If Stem can reach its goals, this stock has a tremendous runway for growth still ahead of it.  We will monitor how the company executes moving forward as the execution risk is still high for a company with less than $50M in total revenue.

Churchill Capital (CCIV)

Another SPAC to keep a close eye on is Churchill Capital.  There is no DA or letter of intent yet, but Bloomberg reported a couple weeks ago that they were in talks to bring Lucid Motors public.  The stock has more than doubled on huge volume after the announcement of these talks.

This is high-risk, high-reward type play as deals can fall through.  Churchill Capital was originally in talks to merge with DirecTV, but those talks have since fallen through.     

Lucid Motors’ prototype Lucid Air is the only electric sedan able to achieve a quarter-mile time under 10 seconds.  The car can hold 517 miles on a single charge.  Peter Rawlinson, Lucid Motors’ CEO, was the chief engineer who helped design the Tesla Model S.  The Lucid Air model is a car similar to the Tesla Model S. 

We plan to wait until there is confirmation that this merger is indeed going to happen to make a move.  If that occurs, we will re-evaluate and may decide to enter the stock.

SoFi (IPOE)

SoFi aspires to be the new age bank of the future for millennials and gen z.  They have a 1-stop shop platform where they offer a full suite of products which includes Investments, savings, student loans, personal loans, home loans, credit cards, insurance, small business finance.  These products are all accessible digitally through their app, combining everything consumers want in one place. 

SoFi has 3 distinct revenue streams: Lending, Financial Services, and their tech platform.  The company currently generates 83% of their revenue from their lending segment and only 2% from financial services.  By 2025, however, they are projecting financial services to become 32% of that revenue and lending to be 43%.

The financial services platform will be the main focus area for SoFi moving forward.  The company received a national bank charter license approval and is planning to use the $2.4B from the SPAC merger with Social Capital to build out that banking business.  SoFi has partnerships with Samsung and Mastercard to launch a new cash management account feature with no fees.

SoFi management estimates it total addressable market to total $2T.  The company competes with the traditional banks.  SoFi has an opportunity to disrupt the traditional banking system as consumers, and younger generations especially, have lost trust in the banks. 

SoFi is projecting revenue to grow 550% over the next 5 years to $3.7B.  The company is expecting to reach profitability this year and by 2025 they expect to generate $1.2B in profit.  Member growth is expected to accelerate from 1.8M customers in 2020 to 3M by the end of 2021. 

SoFi also has an accelerating enterprise business with 50M accounts right now, representing 138% growth YoY.  Chamath Palihapitiya, the venture capitalist leading this SPAC merger, called the company the AWS of FinTech.  SoFi is the back end platform for a lot of different financial service providers including Robinhood, Chime, and Dave.com.   

Other Stocks Discussed on the Webinar that are on David’s Top List:

Fiverr (FVRR)

Fiverr continues to be one of my top ideas.  Fiverr is the premier digital freelancing platform.  During the pandemic, the company saw a surge in demand and parlayed that into a record year of growth.  The company now boasts over 80% revenue growth and 83% gross margins while also reaching profitability for the first time this year.

The freelancing industry still has plenty of growth left.  The accelerated industry growth we saw this year proved to be a bigger advantage for Fiverr than any of its competitors.  When compared to Upwork, their biggest competitor, Fiverr comes out on top by a wide margin.

Younger generations, including millennials and gen z, are much more interested in freelancing than previous generations.  A couple of the main reasons they point to for this include the flexibility that freelance work can provide and the ability to work fully remotely.     

Fiverr is also expanding their platform for large businesses to use.  The introduction of Fiverr Teams, which is just getting rolled out now, is a subscription-based model for large businesses to work and collaborate with freelancers through Fiverr.  This will add a source of recurring revenue to Fiverr’s business model.

App download data from SensorTower shows Fiverr app downloads grew 100% YoY in January after also growing 100% YoY in December.  Fiverr app downloads grew 15% month-over-month.  This data shows that Q4 is likely to be very strong when Fiverr announces earnings on February 18th.  This data also points to a tremendous start to Q1, which is a very positive sign as we get into more challenging comps.   

Plug Power (PLUG)

Plug Power is the leading provider of comprehensive fuel cell technology.  When I’ve written about this stock in the past, I predicted that there would be political pressure for big companies to reduce their environmental footprint.  Amazon and Walmart partnered with Plug, and I believed other big companies and partnerships would likely follow. 

That is exactly what happened as Plug nailed down another big partnership with Renault, Europe’s 2nd largest automaker.  This adds to the company’s existing partnerships that include Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, BMW and others. 

Plug is projected to grow revenue 44% this year, which is a conservative projection based off my research.  One of the main reasons I continue to be bullish on this stock is that more and more companies are going to partner with Plug.  In regards to partnerships, I believe we are still very early and could see a lot more companies connect with Plug.  With a Biden presidency and democratic senate, political pressure for companies to reduce their environmental footprint will only be amplified.  

Sea Limited (SE)

Sea Limited is another stock I continue to be bullish on.  Sea is the #1 internet company in Southeast Asia, one of the fastest growing regions in terms of internet usage in the world.  Southeast Asia remains an underpenetrated market where Sea has ideally positioned themselves as the market leader. 

Sea will finish 2020 with over 90% YoY growth as the pandemic accelerated the growth of e-commerce in the region.  However, analysts are still projecting a 40+ percent growth rate next year, which is significantly higher than most domestic e-commerce companies are projecting. 

Sea provides a great way to get international exposure, e-commerce exposure, and also gaming exposure.  They started off as a gaming company and have since remained the top gaming company in the region.  This is another tremendous source of revenue for Sea.   

Sea is also expanding into FinTech with Sea Money, which is their third distinct revenue segment. They recently won the digital retail banking license in Singapore.  Although Southeast Asia is not as far along in terms of FinTech and digital banking as the United States, this represents a big opportunity for Sea in the future.  With FinTech just getting started in SE Asia, Sea is already positioning themselves to be the #1 FinTech platform in the region.

Sea is positioned to continue to be the #1 e-commerce and gaming company in a fast-growing region.  Now, they are also positioning themselves to emerge as the #1 FinTech platform in the region.  There is a long runway for continued growth in this stock moving forward.  

In this report we provide the updated charts as well as summarize the setups that we discussed on the recent zoom webinar.

The stocks in focus are: Bitcoin, Marvell, Fubo, Chainlink, XPeng, Teladoc, Nvidia, BIGC

You can watch the replay of this webinar here:

Timestamps:
0:18 – Bitcoin
3:22 – Marvell
7:20 – Fubo
10:33 – Chainlink
13:29 – XPeng
16:34 – Teladoc
19:15 – Nvidia
22:15 – BIGC

 

Bitcoin

Summary

• So far, there is no reason to believe that we are not following the correct count for Bitcoin. In other words, the recent drawdown was expected and still relatively shallow within the above count.
• The 3rd wave (in pink), topped right around the most common extension for 3rd waves, which would put us in the 4th wave correction.
• There are two likely targets for 4th wave corrections. Note how the 4th wave tagged the shallow target – for Bitcoin, 28,880.
• This region also coincided with the 55-day moving average, while the CCI was giving us, at the time, a buy signal (it was making higher lows, while bitcoin’s price made lower lows).
• The bottom could be in. However, the levels to watch for confirmation – breakout above 38,800; breakdown below 28,880. We will update you as we progress.
• We trimmed our position in Bitcoin at the top as well as on the bounce. It is still our largest position, followed closely by Roku.

Marvell (MRVL)

Summary

• We have been tracking the 5 wave uptrend that started in December of 2018.
• This uptrend is suggesting the 3rd wave may have topped at the $55/$56 region. Note the overbought signal in red at the top of the chart. Also, the volume trend as well as the RSI have both been trending down as prices keep climbing. These are signals that typically precede a correction.
• If the RSI breaks down, how it reacts at the 50 line will determine the size of the correction. If we hold the 50 line, we are likely in a small correction, with the 3rd wave ready to extend to new highs. If the 50 line breaks, we are in a deeper pullback, targeting the low $40s.
• We consider MRVL is the low $40s to be a gift, considering how well it is positioned for 5G as well as AI. We will keep you updated based on any changes in the price.

Fubo (FUBO)

Summary

• The good news regarding Fubo’s chart – we have a clear 5 waves off the IPO low (in blue). This means that we are likely in a large degree 5 wave uptrend.
• That puts us in the 2nd wave correction.
• There are two possible scenarios playing out – the green count suggests the 2nd wave is over, and has us in the early stages of the 3rd wave to new highs. The red count suggests that we are in a corrective bounce, with the final move of this correction taking us to new lows.
• The structure off the recent low has become complicated. Once we broke down below the $31 region, my conviction that we are in the green count went down. We believe it can go either way at this point.
• Levels to monitor are: $30, $26. Each one of these supports that fails builds the probability that we will see new lows. If we break $23.20, that will be the final confirmation and we will update you with lower targets.
• Fubo is a high conviction idea of ours, and we are holding regardless. If the red count does play out, we will look to accumulate more shares at lower levels as the market continues to underestimate Fubo.

Chainlink (LINK)

Summary

• With Chainink’s breakout to new highs, it confirms that the correction that started in August of last year is over.
• If our count is correct (in pink), we are breaking out into the 3rd wave of this final 5 wave uptrend, which has us targeting the $50-$58 region as our first target.
• The MACD is supporting this thesis, as of now; however, we will want to see LINK start moving soon.
• A move above $25 would be considered a breakout move, and also provide clear levels to work with regarding risk management.

XPeng (XPEV)

Summary

• XPEV’s current chart is similar to FUBO – we have a clear 5 waves off the IPO low, which is a large degree first wave. We are now either still in the 2nd wave, with one more low to go, or we are in the early part of the 3rd wave to new highs.
• We are looking for a pullback into the $49-43 levels. This is an area we will look to add to our current position.
• As long as the $40.50 region holds, I expect that we will see new highs sooner. However, below this support and it will confirm that we can expect lower levels, prolonging the correction that we are already in. 
• Regardless, we expect to accumulate on any weakness as well as a breakout to new highs.

Teladoc (TDOC)

Summary

• Teladoc completed its 4th wave consolidation once it broke out to new highs.
• We targeted numerous entries, as well as outlined the significance of the $172 region in prior reports.
• We also outlined the levels to monitor in a previous webinar. I stated that a breakout above $215 would confirm the 4th wave is likely over, while a breakdown below $158 would put the deep 4th wave target as the next likely bottom.
• As of now, we are in the final move of this large degree uptrend, so the risk is elevated when trying to add at current prices. We will look for entries along the way, but the breakout above $215, was the last breakout that made sense to me as of now.
• This microtrend is in the early innings, and we believe there will be many opportunities to participate Teladoc’s uptrend.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Summary

• Nvidia is rangebound between the $590/$596 region and the $505/$500 region.
• Where price moves in relation to these levels will determine if we have a renewed uptrend to highs, or we can expect lower prices before finding a bottom.
• A break above $560 would tilt the probability that we will get a breakout above the $590/$596 region; however, until we get a clear breakout to new highs, it is not fully confirmed.
• We will update you with new information when Nvidia’s price makes its move in either direction.

BigCommerce (BIGC)

Summary

• BIGC has found a bottom, so far, at the $57.75 region. This level satisfies a shallow C wave correction, and is not considered abnormal.
• BIGC has since shown notable strength, and is close to confirming a real bottom is in.
• A break above $86.50 will confirm this, which will be the next entry we will take. Below this level and the risk remains that we could see a lower low.

In this report we provide the updated charts as well as summarize the setups that we discussed on the recent zoom webinar.

The stocks in focus are: Zoom, Plug Power, Atomera, Fubo, Bitcoin, Unity, Datadog

You can watch the replay of this webinar here:

Timestamps:
2:00 – Zoom
7:40 – Plug Power
11:00 – Atomera
13:40 – Fubo
18:30 – Bitcoin
22:55 – Unity
26:25 – Datadog

Zoom (ZM)

Summary

• Zoom is trying to find a bottom in its large degree 4th wave (in blue).
• It bottomed at the $330 level, which is no man’s land – i.e., there is no significance to that price region, while there is significant support between the $325-$295 regions.
• We have a RSI Reversal Pattern (RSI making higher highs as price makes lower highs). This suggests that the downtrend is not over.
• Price failed to break above the 55-day moving average, which is significant resistance.
• We are expecting lower levels and will target the $325-$295 region on any additional weakness.

Plug Power (PLUG)

Summary

• PLUG is clearly in the middle of a 3rd wave. In fact, the above chart shows three degrees of 5 wave patterns – black being the largest, then blue, and the smallest timeframe in pink. All three of these counts are in their 3rd waves together.
• Note the increase in volume with the MACD at its peak. These are classic 3rd wave characteristics.
• I believe that we are at the end of the smallest degree 3rd wave (in pink). Note the heavy red volume spike at the peak.
• My targets will be the $38, $31, $28 regions, if this is the pink 4th wave is playing out. We will look for a buy signal at these regions to help guide entries.

Atomera (ATOM)

Summary

• Like PLUG, Atomera appears to be in the middle of a 3rd wave uptrend. Note the volume spikes as well as there MACD at peak levels.
• We believe this 3rd wave, if holds, still has farther to go, so any pullback we view as a buying opportunity.
• ATOM, just broke out of a bull flag (in pink), and is retesting the breakout. A break above $32 should confirm the uptrend will resume.
• A break below $23 will put the $17 region in focus.

Fubo (FUBO)

Summary

• The question with FUBO is: has the 2nd wave down bottomed, or does the 2nd wave have another leg lower below $23?
• If the 2nd wave is over, and we are in the very beginning stages of 3rd wave, we should see evidence of smaller 5 wave patterns on a micro-level, which we are seeing this evidence unfold.
• Small time frames are volatile, so we will want to see the blue pattern complete. In other words, price needs to hold the $30.75 level and push above $41.
• If price does break $30.75, the probability of a lower low will increase. Below $26, the probability increases even more, and below $23.20, we can expect the downtrend to resume.
• Regardless, we will continue to hold FUBO without stops.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Summary

• Bitcoin is following our count quite well, so far. I believe that the lower degree 3rd wave has ended (in pink), and believe we have another leg lower before this 4th wave ends.
• We will look for price to break below $30,000 on this next leg down. This correction is small when put into the above context.
• Until price gives me reason to believe otherwise, I plan to continue to follow this path, which is acting as expected, so far.

Unity (U)

Summary

• Unity appears to have bottomed while trying to find a bottom in its 4th wave.
• The RSI as well as the Accumulation/Distribution are suggesting that we may see another leg lower.
• $137 and $132 are levels I will target on any further weakness.
• I believe U has another move higher before completing the 5th wave, which seems to line up with the lock-up period expiring in early March. We will watch this stock closely as this date approaches.

Datadog (DDOG)

Summary

• There are two possibilities one where DDOG can go based on the price data.
• The above chart outlines the bullish path, which I believe is the most probable. Based on the recent consolidation and volume patterns, DDOG appears to want push up. I would watch the $112-$115 level for confirmation of a breakout. If this price is broken, we will likely add to DDOG.
• If DDOG breaks the $89 level, we can expect price to break into the $70s, at which point we will be buyers.

• In this annual review, we discuss various changes that we will be implementing in 2021 to the portfolio structure.
• We are expecting a new website, a new forum and an updated notification system in the first quarter of 2021. We expect the notifications to be implemented by next week at the latest.
• We are rebranding our Active Portfolio as the I/O Fund, and we discuss the strategy going forward. It will hold about 30 stocks – 20 will be long-term, buy and hold positions based on Beth’s research. Ten stocks will be a more active strategy, tailored to play momentum in the current market.
• In this presentation, Beth reviews our 20 LTBH stocks for 2021
• Our YTD returns were exceptional but we know the year was anomalous for tech growth – we are working hard to duplicate this success again this year.
• We have provided screenshots of our portfolio for the first 6-months here. We are working with an accountant to audit the last half of the year.
• We then end the call with questions and answers.

Timestamps:

00:30 – Reviewing the I/O Fund's Investing Style

05:42 – Nvidia

07:43 – AMD

08:59 – Marvell

10:19 – Lam Research

11:39 – Qualcomm

12:35 – Atomera

13:52 – Kingsoft Cloud

14:49 – Microsoft

15:20 – Datadog

16:20 – Roku

18:20 – Zoom Video

19:57 – Snap

21:02 – Unity Software

23:24 – FuboTV

27:13 – Magnite

29:03 – Bandwidth

30:07 – Shopify

31:00 – Teladoc Health

31:25 – American Well Corp

31:39 – Twilio Inc

32:25 – Bitcoin

34:11 – Chainlink

36:40 – Knox's Presentation

38:10 – 2020 Returns

39:40 – The New Name for the Portfolio

40:50 – Portfolio Strategy for 2021

43:21 – Piechart for the Portfolio

45:06 – Ongoing Setups for the LTBH

47:30 – Q&A

 

 

In this report we provide the updated charts as well as summarize the setups that we discussed on the recent zoom webinar.

The stocks in focus are:

FUBO, MGNI, ZM, Bitcoin, AMD, KC, SHOP, TDOC, BIGC, AMWL

You can watch the replay of this webinar here:

Fubo TV (FUBO)

Summary

• Last week we identified the $26 region as support. After completing a full 5 waves up, a break below $26 would likely signal a deeper correction was at play.
• We also identified that the $29-$30 region was significant resistance. A break above this price would mean that we can extend in a breakout move.
• Not only did we break above $30 this week, but we have our first indication that institutional buying is occurring.
• Over the short to intermediate-term, there are overbought signals coupled with weakening momentum, so a pullback would be healthy after the recent move. We would target the $35 or the $31 region on any pullback, if we do get a pause in the uptrend.

Magnite (MGNI)

Summary

• We are tracking what appears to be a large degree 5 wave uptrend (in blue). This would put us in the early stages of the 3rd wave.
• After breaking out on heavy volume above the $21 region that we identified, this gives us clear levels to work with in terms of risk management. We will want to see this move hold in the coming days.
• We have a high conviction in Magnite, and believe it will have a strong year along with Fubo. However, with the warning signs we are seeing in the broad market, any setup we would take right now, regardless of conviction, would come with a strict stop.

Zoom (ZM)

Summary

• Zoom is still in its 4th wave correction, as sentiment is finally correcting.
• We’ve seen similar sentiment shifts in powerful tech stories – ie, Roku. After a period of strong bullish sentiment, it’s normal to see a shift like we are in Zoom. It’s important to realize that the story hasn’t changed, which provides an opportunity.
• Our analysis suggests Zoom has one more leg to go in this correction. For one, note the RSI Reversal pattern (RSI making higher highs while price makes lower highs).
• We believe strong support will be found around $325, $302, $295. We will look to be buyer at these regions.
• Also, If Zoom can instead take back the $440 region first, it supports that the 4th wave is over, and it will provide a nice breakout setup.

AMD (AMD)

Summary

• AMD appears to be setting up, for the next leg up in its 5 wave uptrend in green. As of now, we are targeting the $200 region. This is the long-term picture.
• However, on a more immediate time frame, after breaking out of the $85 range and the $90 range, AMD has completed a micro 5 waves up. Also our indicators are currently diverging from price, which is a sign of short term weakness.
• We believe a pullback will provide a better entry, and would target the $85 – $90. A break below $85 could signal that are not done with the 4th wave, and may have deeper to correct before the uptrend resumes.

Kingsoft Cloud (KC)

Summary

• So far, KC has closed above the $43 breakout zone for 7 trading days.
• However, it should be in its 3rd wave, which means it should be moving more than it is. Our indicators are also flashing a warning as well, and there is a lack of volume moving into current breakout.
• We are still in the early stages of this breakout move, but we will want to see it move sooner rather than later. Currently, it is at the must-hold line at $31.
• We love this story as well as the growth, but we may raise our stop if KC doesn’t start to move soon.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Summary

• Bitcoin is at all time highs and the sentiment is nowhere near where it was during the retail driven euphoria in 2017. This is a good sign. It means that the demand from that bubble was quietly filled. Furthermore, there is growing evidence that institutions are getting involved.
• After breaking out to new highs, we added our last tranche in Bitcoin for now. Not only are all time highs very bullish, but the 5 wave pattern that Bitcoin is tracking is suggesting the $30,000 – $42,000 regions are in play.
• As long as Bitcoin holds the $12,000 region, the short to intermediate-term uptrend we are tracking remains valid. 

Shopify (SHOP)

Summary

• Shopify broke out of the $1100-$1110 region, which suggests that its 4th wave correction is complete.
• The 5th wave is targeting the $1550-$1600 region as of now. However, a retest of the breakout zone is likely.
• We would consider any pullback a buyable opportunity for this company. It has always been a high conviction play, and that conviction has recently increased (Beth has a PDF coming out shortly on this).
• Also, it’s worth monitoring the potential that the 4th wave may have one more leg to go. If we believe this is what is going on, we will let you know.

Teladoc (TDOC)

Summary

• Teladoc has completed a symmetrical, 3 leg correction. It also tagged the $172 region which was the initial target for a shallow 4th wave.
• By all accounts, the 4th waves look complete. However, the bounce off the recent low is not convincing.
• We rarely get a chance to invest in a microtrend that is this nascent. Because of this, Teladoc has been met with bearish sentiment regarding perceived risks. We have TDOC as a high allocation to our portfolio regardless, and will look to add more if we see another move down.
• In short, if TDOC breaks above $225, that is a strong signal that TDOC’s 4th wave is in, and it will provide a good breakout setup. If TDOC breaks below $172, that will signal that the 4th wave is not over and we will then target the $158 region next.

Big Commerce (BIGC)

Summary

• We believe BIGC will likely beat its projected revenue expectations for Q4. It has a low bar to hurdle over, and based on projected Q4 E-commerce sales, we believe it will meet this goal.
• We also liked the short term setup in BIGC as well. It was showing a head and shoulders pattern that we took on the breakout.
• Since then, BIGC has reversed. We have widened our stop in this position to give it some room. However, this may change if the broad market weakness we are expecting occurs sooner rather than later.

In this report we provide the updated charts as well as summarize the setups that we discussed on the recent zoom webinar. The stocks in focus are:

LAZR, AI, QCOM, KC, FUBO, MGNI, NVDA, ROKU, INSG

We also update our monthly portfolio holdings.

You can watch the replay of this webinar here:

Please note the glossary of terms and techniques here and herehere and here

You can access our portfolio here. You can also track in real time our Buyshere. You can also track in real time our Buys/SellsSells/Portfolio Activity in the forum.Portfolio Activity in the forum.

If you want to track us in real time, we recommend that you set up alerts to these 2 topics “Buys,” and “Sells” which can be done by clicking on their icon/image, or search for their name in the search bar. Then, click the follow button and it will turn red like the image below.

If you want to receive notifications on these updates by email Only, go to Account Settings, then Emails and Notifications. Then, turn “New activity in topics I’m following” to “immediately.” Turn all other notifications off. Then ONLY follow the topics “Buys” and “Sells.”If you want to receive notifications on these updates by email Only, go to Account Settings, then Emails and Notifications. Then, turn “New activity in topics I’m following” to “immediately.” Turn all other notifications off. Then ONLY follow the topics “Buys” and “Sells.”Account Settings, then Emails and Notifications. Then, turn “New activity in topics I’m following” to “immediately.” Turn all other notifications off. Then ONLY follow the topics “Buys” and “Sells.” Please see the screenshot below for your reference.Please see the screenshot below for your reference.

Luminar Technologies (LAZR)

Summary

• Being a pre-revenue SPAC, LAZR is arguably the riskiest investment we have made since our service began.
• We like the backers, the partners, and specifically the product.
• We are using the 15 minute chart to navigate our entries.
• We believe that we have a clear first wave up, which puts us in the 2nd wave. This second wave could feasibly go as low as the $19.15 and still be valid.
• The 61.8% retrace will be the last defense for a normal 2nd wave retrace, which is at $27. Below this level, and the next support is $23, then $19.15.
• We will likely stay in LAZR because we like the story so much right now. For anyone that is looking for a stop, the above listed supports are good areas to utilize.

C3.AI (AI)

Summary

• With only 3 days of data to analyze, AI is still showing a potential uptrend is in place.
• We have a clear 5 wave move off the low, followed by, so far, a shallow 2nd wave to the 38.2% retrace level at the $113 region.
• AI has tested the $129-$130 resistance level multiple times with lower drawdowns at each failure. This is a good sign.
• A break above this resistance will likely confirm we are in a 3rd wave to new highs. A failure at $118.50 will likely confirm that the 2nd wave is not over, which could lead to a lower low than we saw last week.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

Summary

• Qualcomm confirmed a failed breakout on recent Apple news.
• We are not concerned about this news for several reasons (some of which Beth has covered and will further address soon). We still view it as a high conviction play.
• However, we have a hard stop on the recent tranche we bought on the breakout above $152.
• When price breaks $138.4, we will stop out of this tranche ONLY.

Kingsoft (KC)

Summary

• We covered Kingsoft Cloud extensively in last week’s call. In short, the structure highly suggests that we are in the early stages of a 3rd wave breakout.
• Nothing is certain, and we could see a failure; however, we now have 2 days in a row where price has closed above the breakout zone.
• We will update you if anything changes.

Magnit (MGNI)

Summary

• We are tracking a potentially large 5 wave pattern. We have a confirmed breakout at the $13 region, which puts us square in the 3rd wave.
• Though MGNI has pulled back from its recent run, it has not even broken the 8-day EMA.
• The large degree uptrend we are tracking can still remain active above $8. This is a 60% risk range that each investor will need to incorporate into their own risk profile.
• Personally, I’d give MGNI to the $13 region before I’d consider the potential for a break down to be a real possibility.
• We do not have a stop on this position because we believe in the story this much. However, below $13, and we will likely consider implementing risk controls.

Fubo TV (FUBO)

Summary

• After completing a full 5 wave pattern, Fubo failed to decisively break above a key resistance zone at $29-$30.
• As long as price holds the $26 level, we can extend further in this 5 wave pattern.
• A break below $26 increases the likelihood that we are in the 2nd wave correction, which could take us to the $24, $20, $17 regions before finding a bottom.
• Long-term, this is one of our favorite stories.  We consider any dip to be a buyable opportunity.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Summary

• Nvidia is still struggling at the $590 region.
• It is forming an ascending triangle pattern, which usually resolves as a breakout to new highs.
• However, below $590 and the risk remains that we could see another leg in the 4th wave, which could take us as low as the $450 region.
• We will wait for the breakout before adding.

Roku (ROKU)

Summary

• We identified the $395 target a few months back. So far, we are well on our way there.
• However, Roku’s structure suggests that we are in the final throws of the 3rd wave.
• The CCI, A/D, and overbought conditions are all suggesting weakness. This is happening as Roku is struggling at the most common spot for 3rd waves to end, which for Roku is the $326 region.
• If Roku can break above this region, we can see the 3rd wave extend; whoever, we do not believe the reward is worth the risk at these levels.
• We will wait for a notable 4th wave pullback to add to this position, and will update you accordingly.

Inseego (ING)

Summary

• We exited Inseego a few weeks back due to the excessive short interest in the stock.
• With a boost in recent news, shorts were forced to cover their position, causing a sharp increase in price.
• IFfINSG can break above $15, we will buy this stock on this breakout. Below this level and we consider this position to risky.

Portfolio Review

Summary

• Our top 5 positions remain to be Roku, Nvidia, Zoom, AMD, and Bitcoin.
• We are moving Luminar into our Active Portfolio. This is a risky play, but one that we believe will eventually pay off.
• Twilio has become a larger holding, and we plan to continue to build this position on favorable setups.
• We have added Snap, Magnite and Fubo to the portfolio as well, and are comfortable with where they currently are within our allocations.
• We sold Alibaba to reduce risk and raise cash for positions that we believe have a better growth story. We prefer to have Kingsoft as our primary China play for now.
• We sold Slack and logged an 82% gain.
• We trimmed Link and will look to add to Bitcoin on a clean break above $20,000.

In this report we provide the updated charts as well as summarize the setups that we discussed on the recent zoom webinar. The stocks in focus are:

 

TWLO, QCOM, MRVL, ZM, KC, MGNI, FUBO, LAZR

 

You can watch the replay of this webinar here:

Please note the glossary of terms and techniques here and herehere and here

You can access our portfolio here. You can also track in real time our Buyshere. You can also track in real time our Buys/SellsSells/Portfolio Activity in the forum.Portfolio Activity in the forum.

If you want to track us in real time, we recommend that you set up alerts to these 2 topics “Buys,” and “Sells” which can be done by clicking on their icon/image, or search for their name in the search bar. Then, click the follow button and it will turn red like the image below.

If you want to receive notifications on these updates by email Only, go to Account Settings, then Emails and Notifications. Then, turn “New activity in topics I’m following” to “immediately.” Turn all other notifications off. Then ONLY follow the topics “Buys” and “Sells.”If you want to receive notifications on these updates by email Only, go to Account Settings, then Emails and Notifications. Then, turn “New activity in topics I’m following” to “immediately.” Turn all other notifications off. Then ONLY follow the topics “Buys” and “Sells.”Account Settings, then Emails and Notifications. Then, turn “New activity in topics I’m following” to “immediately.” Turn all other notifications off. Then ONLY follow the topics “Buys” and “Sells.” Please see the screenshot below for your reference.Please see the screenshot below for your reference.

 

 

Twilio (TWLO)

Summary

• The long term-trend in Twilio is lining up with the fundamental story that Beth recently discussed here. As long as we stay above the $146 price level, this trend will remain intact.
• What we are seeing today is simple – has the 5 wave pattern (in blue) off the March low ended, or do we have another leg higher in this final 5th wave?
• If price can break above the $340 level, we could see the uptrend continue. This will also give us clear levels to work with regarding stops.
• If price fails to breakout above the $340 level, and then breaks below $290, this will likely signal that the 5th wave has already ended. We could then see a deeper correction the to $237 or $215 region.
• We are looking to further accumulate shares in Twilio. We will wait for either a breakout above $340, or on the potential correction that could be unfolding.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

Summary

• We are excited about Qualcomm’s positioning going into 2021. This is a stock that we want to further accumulate.
• Qualcomm just broke out of a small base today at the $152 resistance.
• More times than not, we get a retest of the breakout zone, which we will be monitoring.
• We have placed a HARD stop on this tranche ONLY at the $138.4 price.
• If the breakout holds, the $175 region will be the next target overhead.

Marvell (MRVL)

Summary

• The above chart outlines the long-term uptrend in play. As long as we stay above the $24 region, this uptrend will remain valid.
• Like Twilio, we appear to be in the final 5th wave of the 5 wave move off the March low.
• There are enough waves in place for this move to be complete. However, if price can break above the $46-$47 region, we could see a further extension.
• Below $46 and we could see a retrace to the $36-$31 level.
• Whether we breakout above $46-$47 or not, we will hold off on accumulating until this larger correction plays out.

Zoom (ZM)

Summary

• The above chart outlines my updated count for Zoom.
• The larger uptrend Is in black, while the smaller uptrend is in blue. I believe we are in the smaller degree 4th wave (in blue), which is targeting the $373 or $295 region.
• As long as we stay above the $240 region, the above count is in play, and we will look to further accumulate shares of Zoom.

Kingsoft Cloud (KC)

Summary

• KC is on the verge of confirming a breakout above $43.
• The analysis of Kingsoft’s price structure supports that we are in the early stages of a 3rd wave move (in blue).
• As long as we hold above $31.90, this uptrend will remain valid. We have put a hard stop at this level.

Magnite (MGNI)

Summary

• Like KC, Magnite is on the verge of a rather large breakout. This will be confirmed above $21.
• The price structure off the all-time low suggests that we are in the early stages of a 3rd wave (in blue). The general path for this uptrend is active as long as we remain above the $10.50 level.
• We are in extreme overbought conditions, so a pullback from the $21 resistance level would be expected.
• We will look to add more on this pullback or on the breakout above $21.

Fubo TV (FUBO)

Summary

• Fubo appears to be in the final stages of its 5 wave move off the recent low.
• The 5 wave pattern is symmetrical, and the 5th wave is struggling at a confluence of very important price clusters, which is around the $29-$30 region.
• A break above this level will suggest a further extension before we see a sizable correction.
• If we are in the early stages of this correction, the $23-$20 region will be likely targets.

Luminar Technologies (LAZR)

Summary

• We bought our first position in LAZR Friday morning based on the story.
• We bought our second position based on the price structure that developed on 15 minute chart.
• With only 2 days of price data to analyze, we can see a clear 5 wave pattern forming. Note how the 3rd wave ended right at the 161.8% extension of the first wave. We then had a 4th wave pullback to the projected shallow target zone. This, so far, is behaving like a classic 5 wave pattern.
• These 5 wave sutures are happening on all time scales – from the 15 minute chart to the multi-decade long weekly charts.
• A break above $33-$34 will signal that we are in the final 5th wave of this very small uptrend.
• It’s worth noting that if we are tracking the correct count, we will have many opportunities to participate in this stock’s uptrend.
• Below $25.50, and something else may be going on.  For this reason, we have placed our stop at this level.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.

Webinar timestamps:

0:00 – Introduction
3:00 – BABA
8:20 – TWLO
11:40 – MGNI
14:17– FUBO
18:22 – PLTR
23:50– PLUG